Did some GOTV calls for Kerry yesterday to the Dayton and Marion Cty. area. The first is a Dem area, the latter total rednecks. Wholly unscientific survey came up with a 39-28 lead for Kerry, but again, more calls made to Dayton.

Late polls seem to show things breaking for Bush, and it's not just Zogby, either. SurveyUSA shows similar things, as does the hated FoxNews and the Ohio Poll (which, at 50-50, was a big improvement for Kerry).

Any thoughts on how it's going there? We're in good shape without the courts intervening, but I'm getting more concerned about this state than any other one.

I've got to say, in 2000, things were much shakier than now. I remember going in that I truly didn't know who was going to win, I thought Gore could pull it out, but that it looked scary because he'd given up in so many states.

In about mid-September this year, I felt pretty much how I felt then.

Not anymore. I'm confident. I'm cautious with my optimism, but I truly believe enough people want change and Kerry is going to win tomorrow.

The interesting thing I've seen about today's polls, most of which show decent news for Kerry, is that he has indeed narrowed the gap in terms of who would do a better job on terrorism.

The Des Moines Register poll shows Bush still winning in that category, 49-40%, but that's a significant decline from most polls that showed him with a 15-20% lead in that area. Kerry wins most categories, and has been doing so for a long time, namely taxes, the economy, caring about the middle class, et al.

But the big elephant in the room is the terrorism question -- and I've been thinking for a long time that if Kerry could simply narrow the gap there to 6-12 points, that would be really significant.

New stuff out in Wisconsin, Iowa, Mich. and NH.

Wisconsin's Badger poll has Bush 48-45, but I'm having a hard time with that. Even in mid-September, with most pollsters showing a slight Bush lead, they had him over 50%; and way way back, they had him winning when others showed him losing.

Michigan: the Detroit News tracking poll has Kerry up 6 now; Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, garnering 50% of the vote.

New Hampshire's state U. has Kerry up 50-46. I like seeing these 50s!

Iowa: Research 2000 - Bush 49-48, up one point.

Oregon: the Oregonian has Kerry up 50-44 and Survey USA has him up 50-47. We're good in Oregon for sure.

STATE       KERRY      BUSH

Wisconsin     48        47
Iowa             47        48
Oregon         50        46

That's good news for Wisconsin and we're keeping it close in Iowa. And Oregon, I think, wasn't something we were worried about.

http://www.mypollingplace.com/find.php

FIND OUT HERE!

I say email this to everyone in the world you know who might be confused.

It seems now to me that with a week remaining, the Bush people -- while still hoping to win in Ohio -- are doing their hardest work trying to find a strategy that doesn't involve winning that state.

Bush said today on Charlie Gibson that you can't "count out Michigan," and mentioned Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico as other states that are real, real important.

I don't think they've got a chance in Michigan - save for the Detroit News poll, things don't look good for Bush. And Penn., too, for that matter.

Therefore, I've come up with a few scenarios in which he wins and what they're trying to do...

It looks like the work of the protestors actually did some good. Sinclair is sort of backing off, saying in a statement now that they're showing something called "A POW Story: Politics, Pressure and the Media," which to me sounds more like they're going to be, essentially, crying about how the SCLM trampled on them.