Late polls seem to show things breaking for Bush, and it's not just Zogby, either. SurveyUSA shows similar things, as does the hated FoxNews and the Ohio Poll (which, at 50-50, was a big improvement for Kerry).
Any thoughts on how it's going there? We're in good shape without the courts intervening, but I'm getting more concerned about this state than any other one.
In about mid-September this year, I felt pretty much how I felt then.
Not anymore. I'm confident. I'm cautious with my optimism, but I truly believe enough people want change and Kerry is going to win tomorrow.
The Des Moines Register poll shows Bush still winning in that category, 49-40%, but that's a significant decline from most polls that showed him with a 15-20% lead in that area. Kerry wins most categories, and has been doing so for a long time, namely taxes, the economy, caring about the middle class, et al.
But the big elephant in the room is the terrorism question -- and I've been thinking for a long time that if Kerry could simply narrow the gap there to 6-12 points, that would be really significant.
Wisconsin's Badger poll has Bush 48-45, but I'm having a hard time with that. Even in mid-September, with most pollsters showing a slight Bush lead, they had him over 50%; and way way back, they had him winning when others showed him losing.
Michigan: the Detroit News tracking poll has Kerry up 6 now; Research 2000 has Kerry up 4, garnering 50% of the vote.
New Hampshire's state U. has Kerry up 50-46. I like seeing these 50s!
Iowa: Research 2000 - Bush 49-48, up one point.
Oregon: the Oregonian has Kerry up 50-44 and Survey USA has him up 50-47. We're good in Oregon for sure.
Wisconsin 48 47
Iowa 47 48
Oregon 50 46
That's good news for Wisconsin and we're keeping it close in Iowa. And Oregon, I think, wasn't something we were worried about.
FIND OUT HERE!
I say email this to everyone in the world you know who might be confused.
Bush said today on Charlie Gibson that you can't "count out Michigan," and mentioned Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and New Mexico as other states that are real, real important.
I don't think they've got a chance in Michigan - save for the Detroit News poll, things don't look good for Bush. And Penn., too, for that matter.
Therefore, I've come up with a few scenarios in which he wins and what they're trying to do...
· WI-08: Wingnut plans to run as "conservative independent" (desmoinesdem)
· 50 percent of southerners say Obama better president than Bush (desmoinesdem)
· What Yesterday Says About Young Voters (Mike Connery)
· Max Blumenthal on the dysfunctional movement driving the GOP (Mike Connery)
· IA-Gov: Culver launches second tv ad (desmoinesdem)
· Hilarious Vid On Why We Must Vote No On Issue 2!! (Cliff Schecter)
· NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out! (lipris)
· NY-23: Pataki Goes Rogue, Endorses Teabagger Darling Doug Hoffman (lipris)
· Dunne Considering Run For VT-Gov (Nathan Empsall)
· McGovern Grandson Looks to Challenge Thune in 2010 (Jonathan Singer)
· IA-03: Two potential challengers for Boswell (desmoinesdem)
· NJ-Gov: Daggett Goes After Christie and Corzine (Jonathan Singer)